The views expressed in this report do not necessarily reflect drying mat the official policy or posi

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Recommended Citation Peter Hayes and Roger Cavazos, "Kim Jong-un s Fresh Leap Forward 2014 New Year Speech", NAPSNet Special Reports, January 01, 2014, http://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-special-reports/kim-jong-uns-fresh-leap-forward-2014-new-year-speech/
Peter Hayes and Roger Cavazos analyze Kim Jong-un s 2014 New Year s speech. They find that the speech provides drying mat important clues about North Korea s perception of its domestic drying mat and international environment. Kim laid out his priorities primarily to a domestic audience, but many of the areas he wishes to develop, such as improving the economy and also advancing two specific industries; metallurgy and chemical will also necessitate drying mat some degree of opening to the outside world. His priorities also require some amount of external reaching out to North Korea or at least non-rejection of North Korean overtures. Kim reaffirmed his byungjin policy of simultaneously developing two fronts: the economy and nuclear weapons. He also upholds the decision to rid the party of anti-party counterrevolutionary drying mat factionalists . Perhaps in a nod to common experience, the Korean and Chinese language versions characterize the factionalists as sectarian filth종파오물 or sectarian dregs宗派污泥浊水 drying mat . The English-language version is much more anti-septic. Under normal songbun dictates the Kim family would have been subject to jail for being so closely related to a known traitor, but Kim Jong-un established himself as a law unto himself and immune drying mat from effects of the law. He is well along the way to establishing himself as the third heir in the Baektu line . There were almost no untrodden paths in the 2014 address as Kim stuck to roughly the same formulae used in the 2013 New Year s address. drying mat North Korea raises the prospect of conflict and nuclear conflict at that in the coming year. This may bode an even more contentious relationship between the U.S. and North Korea in the upcoming year of the Wooden Horse, and will surely drying mat be an irritant in U.S.-China relations if not managed well. However, there are particular opportunities for the international community drying mat to interact with North Korea on energy efficiency and energy conservation efforts. North Korea clearly wants to convey the impression they are concerned about nuclear war. However, for the second New Year s address in a row, North Korea has failed to mention nuclear weapons as a treasured sword and therefore not a topic for negotiation. drying mat The best way to ascertain North Korea s concerns and intentions is to ask them directly by engaging in Track 2 or Track 1.5 discussions.
Peter Hayes is Executive Director of the Nautilus Institute and a Professor of International Relations at RMIT University. Roger Cavazos is a Nautilus Institute Associate and retired US military officer with assignments in the intelligence and policy communities.
The views expressed in this report do not necessarily reflect drying mat the official policy or position of the Nautilus Institute. Readers drying mat should note that Nautilus seeks a diversity of views and opinions on significant topics in order to identify common ground. II. Report by Peter Hayes and Roger Cavazos drying mat Kim Jong-un s Fresh Leap Forward 2014 New Year Speech
Kim Jong-un made his second ever New Year s Speech on 1 January drying mat 2014. [1] , [2] , [3] It was unclear in 2013 if Kim Jong-un s New Year s speech [4] , [5] , [6] was a one-off or a new trend. Given exactly two data points (2013 and now 2014) we still can t say for sure, but things are at least moving toward Kim Jong-un differentiating himself from his father, Kim Jong-il and more closely hewing toward Kim Il-sung s tradition of personally addressing drying mat the country and thus providing electronic presence upon the entire country.
Kim Jong-un s 2013 speech overall tone was one of exhortation to fulfill the vision laid out by Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il to unify Korea (under North Korean rule). The means for fulfilling the vision are to study their previously promulgated blueprints, build an economic giant via science and technology, improve drying mat the peoples living conditions, strengthen its military drying mat might and ensure the people are possessed of profound cultural knowledge. Kim s speech followed a tried and true formula but did add a few new twists. He named specific industries on which he d like to focus. He also tied development drying mat to science and technology given the context that North Korea was flush with technological success after having successfully launched a satellite less than three weeks prior to the speech. Some also saw Kim